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24HourForums.com > The Top 10 Supported Forums > 24's Political Matters > Will the economy begin to RECOVER when Obama takes office? |
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sirlamre Pioneer100© Member Official Forum Troublemaker
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Will the economy begin to swing upwards? Note- I'm not saying this will happen because of anything Obama himself will do, or any of his advisors. I'm thinking that a great majority of the US will heave a sigh of relief* and decide that now things are going to be better. I think a HUGE percentage of the population (like the 65.8% of people who DISAPPROVE of Bush) will feel that something good will start happening in January when things are not in the same political hands they have been for eight disastrous years. Just wondering how big the uptick in the economy will be just because of Obama entering office and the hope that he represents to SUCH a large majority of people. Others may not see it that way to be sure, if they don't support Obama -- but the HUGE difference polls between Obama's ratings and Bush's below failing grade alone indicate that people will feel MUCH better. I know that there are LOTS of other factors, and some logical thinking will show you that you shouldn't think Jan 1 is going to "fix" anything. But that's not how most people react --- *- on the other hand, I'd imagine the oil company execs and big oil investors and Halliburton execs will all start jumping out of tall buildings unless they succeed in rigging the election for McCain to win, though even that might not help them.
 Turn thou unto God and say: O my Sovereign Lord! I am but a vassal of Thine, and Thou art, in truth, the King of kings. I have lifted my suppliant hands unto the heaven of Thy grace and Thy bounties. |
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pmh1nic Pioneer100© Member 
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sirlamre While psychology plays a role with respect to the economy that psychology doesn't change the fundamental issues that are dragging down the economy. Globalization and a shift of wealth and investment out of the country will continue. There are no quick solutions to our energy requirments so for the short term (years) I don't see energy cost decreasing, in fact an escalation of conflict in the Middle East could send prices soaring. The social problems and related cost of illegal immigration, dumbing down of society, crime and healthcare are going to be further drains on the economy. Add to this Obama's assault on capital via higher taxes for the rich and corporations, personal and national debt, weak housing market, suspect banking industry, etc. all working to dampen economy recovery and growth. I think we will see short term spikes up and down but I believe the general trend over the long term is going to be downward with respect to the economy and standard of living.
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sirlamre Pioneer100© Member Official Forum Troublemaker
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It's basically how much of a hidden effect of that psychology is there? A lot of the measurements can be made to see this or that financial trend, etc-- but there simply is no way to measure what the precisde effects of the lack of confidence in this President and the economy are. It's in there, affecting every element of the economy to some unknown degree or other. That's what I'm curious about. A pessimist would say that it'll have very little effect. An optimist would say that the effect might be larger than anyone would have guessed.
Turn thou unto God and say: O my Sovereign Lord! I am but a vassal of Thine, and Thou art, in truth, the King of kings. I have lifted my suppliant hands unto the heaven of Thy grace and Thy bounties. |
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Brian Grand Poobah of Moderation 
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I doubt it will have any effect, positive or negative, in the short-term. As PMH has noted, the fundamentals are the same. Add to that the fact that Iran is more than likely to start messing with whoever's in office in January, and that will do bad things to the price of oil. The world doesn't magically transform into Neverland just because Bush leaves office. And if Obama does manage to win (which isn't at all a foregone conclusion at this point, from the polls I've seen) the markets won't necessarily respond well to him, if he really means to shake things up. ("Change" isn't something the markets tend to be enamored with.)
"It's been a long December, and there's reason to believe maybe this year will be better than the last." -- "A Long December", Counting Crows |
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24HourNut Administrator  Body pillows rock!
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I think people will feel better and more investing will get stimulated if we feel the next President is going to end the bleeding in Iraq. So, for example, I bet if Obama takes office, the stock market will do well short term at least. Just my guess.
The best human beings start good new topics and vote on the better posts. |
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pmh1nic Pioneer100© Member
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24hournut "I think people will feel better and more investing will get stimulated if we feel the next President is going to end the bleeding in Iraq. So, for example, I bet if Obama takes office, the stock market will do well short term at least." First, Obama doesn't have the power to end the war in Iraq. Second, I think Obama is getting a reality check from U.S. commanders in Iraq. It is totally wishful thinking that we can remove our troops in 16 months. In addition he is talking about that withdrawal based on "conditions on the ground". Where have I heard that before. Frank, what do you think the impact on the economy will be as a result of higher corporate, captial gains and personal income taxes on the so-called rich? Does that lead to more investment or less?
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24HourNut Administrator Body pillows rock!
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First, Obama doesn't have the power to end the war in Iraq. I didn't mean to imply that I thought he did. I meant if he is perceived or believed to have active plans to get our troops out and start a process on a very different path. Many feel good when they think a bad situation is going to diffuse, right or wrong. That is part of the reason I would guess the market does better if he was elected. I have zero feelings past that, the market could crash for all I know. I am just guessing. Frank, what do you think the impact on the economy will be as a result of higher corporate, captial gains and personal income taxes on the so-called rich? Does that lead to more investment or less? I think more taxes, verses fixing and simplifying the tax code, is generally a negative. I think increasing the taxes you mentioned suppresses capital investment. I am, of course, only applying the same logic and reasoning capacity I apply in my other positions. 
The best human beings start good new topics and vote on the better posts. |
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sirlamre Pioneer100© Member Official Forum Troublemaker
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24HourNut wrote:
That's my take A short term boost, simply because more people are feeling GOOD and will spend $$$ for a little bit. But as PMH and Brian both rightly note, there is MORE to the economic problem than that. but a short term jump? Not at all out of the question...
Turn thou unto God and say: O my Sovereign Lord! I am but a vassal of Thine, and Thou art, in truth, the King of kings. I have lifted my suppliant hands unto the heaven of Thy grace and Thy bounties. |
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24HourForums.com > The Top 10 Supported Forums > 24's Political Matters > Will the economy begin to RECOVER when Obama takes office? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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