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24HourForums.com > The Top 10 Supported Forums > 24's Political Matters > Cheney loses legal bid to hide what he said and did in office.

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Brian
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 Posted: 11:01 pm

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sirlamre wrote: Brian wrote: I don't want to spend too much time on the alternative fuel conspiracy, because I think it's too weak to take all that seriously, but I will say this:

There really isn't any such thing as "holding back" a technology.  Once it's ready, it's ready.  And there's no reason a company based on the old technology has to collapse because of the new technology.

The best example of this is digital photography.Did film companies like Kodak go out of business when digital photography was developed?  Nope.  They just started developing digital cameras.  New technology is only a threat if you can't adapt to it, and all evidence is that the oil companies have been investing for years in the next big technologies (hedging their bets, of course, as to what that technology will be). 

The fact is, someone, somewhere will develop a car that gets 100 MPG (of something).  Petroleum oil was never a permanent solution, any more than whale oil was a permanent solution in the 19th century.

There will be some companies that go under as a result of the switch, but thse companies probably would've gone under anyway.  What technology doesn't do, nature will:  Oil is not an inexhaustible resource.

Ask the local blacksmith or farrier about that.

I've SEEN some of the technologies that can make cars _far_ more efficient.  Not into the hundreds of miles per gallon, no -- but get your average pickup truck up to about 45-50 mpg? Sure.

I KNOW that GM can implement them far more easily -- because some of them are NOT major rebuilds.
Ask anyone who has converted a car to running on filtered deepfryer oil.
It's NOT a "thousands of dollars" conversion.
Most diesels, its about $300 or so == and that is at full RETAIL pricing for the components- - not anything LIKE as cheap as it would be once someone like GM started buying the components by the millions.

Sirlamre:

I see two problems with what you're saying:

1)  Why would a company invest any money into getting a pickup truck to get 45-50 mpg, when gasoline isn't going to be used for much longer in the first place?  It sounds like a stupid bet to make.  Let's say your $300 conversion costs them $30 to make, per vehicle.  Here are the sales numbers of some trucks in 2007:

Ford F-Series: 690,589
Chevy Silverado: 618,257
Dodge Ram: 358,295
GMC Sierra: 208,243
Toyota Tundra: 196,555
Nissan Titan: 65,746

Multiply each of those by 30, and keep in mind that those aren't the only trucks the companies sell (e.g., Ford sells the Ranger and the Super Duty...). 

You're quickly talking millions of dollars to make a relatively simple modification. 

Now, the question is, are you going to spend money developing that, or are you going to spend your money developing things like electric or hydrogen cars, which bypass the need for gas altogether?  (And while you're dong the calculation, keep in mind that diesel engines have never been popular in the U.S. in the first place, with governments or citizens.)

If you were a car company, you'd probably do pretty much what the car companies are doing:  Invest in really green technologies that give you both good press and good gas mileage.

Here's a good article on the diesel issue.

2)  The examples of the blacksmith and the farrier miss the point.  In this case, the blacksmith or the farrier would be the equivalent of the gas station attendant, which I'm reasonably certain Ford or GM don't care too much about.  People in the service end of the chain always get displaced if they don't learn new skills.  We're not talking about that end, though.  We're talking about the technology end.  The people who make the steel don't care what form it's made into, be it horseshoes or car hoods.  Oil companies would be hit by a switch to electric cars, but only if they were not in the market doing anything else, and even then, there are lots of uses for petroleum that don't involve cars.




"It's been a long December, and there's reason to believe maybe this year will be better than the last."

-- "A Long December", Counting Crows

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Brian
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 Posted: 11:32 pm

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24HourNut wrote: Brian, you can't really compare film and digitial photography to oil, can you? The difference is, there weren't serious film lobbyists, families with great wealth built around film photography in Congress and the White House, ties with foreign film companies at the highest levels of Government, a sitting President with a film daddy, film VP, and giant, powerful film buddy overseas. In other words, I think the powers behind oil have done a great job keeping their product healthy through our corrupt political whores.
Hi, Frank.

It doesn't really matter how powerful the oil interests are and were.  That doesn't change what happens with technology -- in all cases. 

Not long ago, I read about the air-powered car, which will be sold in India by next summer.  Add to that electric and hydrogen cars. 

Will these technologies put oil companies out of business?  No, because these companies are becoming energy companies instead, and investing in these kinds of technologies, as well -- just as the camera and film companies did when the world went digital.




"It's been a long December, and there's reason to believe maybe this year will be better than the last."

-- "A Long December", Counting Crows
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 Posted: 11:41 pm

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It doesn't really matter how powerful the oil interests are and were. That doesn't change what happens with technology -- in all cases.

Well I think it happens in enough to matter.  I believe in the past such corruption has taken place.  Even recently - i.e. I believe our Government's lack of aggressive energy plan and energy independence is tied to the Administration's ties to big oil.




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 Posted: 04:47 am

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24HourNut wrote: It doesn't really matter how powerful the oil interests are and were. That doesn't change what happens with technology -- in all cases.
Well I think it happens in enough to matter.  I believe in the past such corruption has taken place.  Even recently - i.e. I believe our Government's lack of aggressive energy plan and energy independence is tied to the Administration's ties to big oil.

This administration (and every administration since the 1940's, really) is tied to oil.  Oil is a major driver of our industries.  But that's different from saying that Big Oil (or any industry) can hold still the hands of time. 

Technology advances whether or not a major industry wants it to.  The Brewster carriage company (who made horse-drawn carriages in the 19th and early 20th centuries) could tell you all about that. 

Studebaker is another example, although they made a successful transition from carriage to car.





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-- "A Long December", Counting Crows
Brian
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 Posted: 05:16 pm

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Just wanted to add:

If you look at technologies that failed, they failed not because the industries didn't want them (and you can look across any industry), but because the public rejected them.  (HD-DVD (as opposed to Blu-Ray) is the latest example of this.)  Lots of tech has failed because companies blundered in what they thought the public would accept, but companies have fallen all over themselves to manufacture technology once it has been accepted, and no company would release a product they knew the public wouldn't accept.

Of course, one could argue that companies delay releasing technologies they have already developed until they see there's a market, but I don't see that delay here.  There isn't really any doubt that the public would accept super-efficient cars.  The only thing that's contentious is what kind of system they'll accept. 




"It's been a long December, and there's reason to believe maybe this year will be better than the last."

-- "A Long December", Counting Crows
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 Posted: 05:31 pm

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Government's lack of aggressive energy plan and energy independence is tied to the Administration's ties to big oil.

Frank...if you will look through all of the representatives from BOTH sides, you will see they are all tied to big oil......if you own stock and it's invested by an investment firm,..you, sir have ties to big oil...IF you don't, then you need to FIRE your investor.

If there was a bettter alternative, it would be out there...so far there is nothing easier to get, cheaper to get, and easier to modify, that works better......it's just THAT damn simple.

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 Posted: 07:36 pm

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Millennium wrote: Government's lack of aggressive energy plan and energy independence is tied to the Administration's ties to big oil.

Frank...if you will look through all of the representatives from BOTH sides, you will see they are all tied to big oil......if you own stock and it's invested by an investment firm,..you, sir have ties to big oil...IF you don't, then you need to FIRE your investor.

If there was a bettter alternative, it would be out there...so far there is nothing easier to get, cheaper to get, and easier to modify, that works better......it's just THAT damn simple.

I can agree with all that, but I think there's a fair chance having giant oil dudes in the White House, including an ex-Halliburton dude, stacked the odds tremendously that something as shameful as no serious energy plan for real reform and independence was pushed after 9/11. 




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 Posted: 07:52 pm

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including an ex-Halliburton dude, stacked the odds tremendously that something as shameful as no serious energy plan for real reform and independence was pushed after 9/11.

So your convinced that the Demos were in the tank too? Unless you can show me some legislation where THEY were doing anything. I see it as BOTH parties understanding, that right now, oil is the best thing...

I agree.....we need all sorts of alternate forms of energy.....the problem is...right now all the other forms are too damn expensive, or keep getting blocked by the left, as not green enough...and Halliburton hasn't got a damn thing to do with that.


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